Brian Monteith: Goldie must be open to idea of coalition

Published on Monday 18 May 2009 21:04

THE Scottish Conservative conference closed in an optimistic mood as the Tory brethren contemplate a good European election next month and a real beano in 2010 when Gordon Brown dares to go to the polls.

Why, not even the daily scandals about MPs' expenses can wipe the smile off their faces. Why should they? They have only one MP in Scotland, and he has neither moat nor swimming pool!

In the UK, the Conservatives lead Labour by more than a 14-point margin, despite the expenses revelations that, fortunately for Cameron, cross all parties. "Dave" may not yet have the approval ratings of "Tony" in 1997, but Brown's star has fallen and Cameron now looks like the leader in waiting.

In Perth, Cameron gave the necessary rallying call to his troops, but the more important, the more telling speech was delivered by shadow chancellor George Osborne. Cameron's Conservatives have come a long way in a short time but it is in overcoming their fear of being portrayed as the "same old Tories" by advocating public spending cuts that shows the leadership has matured. Hard times require hard decisions and Osborne's intentional use of the word "austerity" in relation to future spending sends a clear signal that he will do what Brown steadfastly refuses to do – reduce the bloated and costly quangocracy that is his super-nanny state.

Next month, the first of three elections in two years takes place, and the Tories have every right to expect to do well in the first two. In the European elections, Struan Stevenson is seeking re-election and should be a shoo-in.

In Scotland, the prospect of the Westminster elections gives Tories a natural lift, for their party is a player – as the main opposition it can, and probably will, form the next government. It matters to voters that a party actually might win and be able to deliver the promises it offers, and a good handful of Scottish Tories might soon be taking the Monday morning red eye to London. That is one reason it is able to attract to its ranks the likes of Paul McBride QC and pull off the coup of recruiting STV political presenter Michael Crow to head its communications team.

There is talent in the Scottish Tory party, and some good ideas, but until the party accepts the only way it will ever be in government in Scotland is to enter into a coalition, these talents will never become ministers and their ideas will never be tested. The Scottish Conservatives, under Annabel Goldie, steadfastly refuse to countenance going into coalition with another party – in a parliament where it is almost impossible to form a government without another party's support. This is problematic, for if they have no chance of taking the reins or even sharing them, then voters will look to other parties that have.

Why, in 2007, did she expect electors to vote Tory when they were told power-sharing would not be countenanced and that Labour might even be kept in power? The voters gave their verdict and the Tories polled below 15 per cent – the worst in living memory.

Goldie does seem to have learned some lessons since then – the cosy relationship with Labour seems to have been cast to the winds and her once policy-lite and risk-averse leadership is at last making louder noises, even if in predictable areas of crime and punishment. The suggestion of a mandatory two-year sentence for carrying a knife is just the sort of policy response to the mindless behaviour of youths that carry a blade and are prepared to use it that the public can support.

It will be the third of the three elections that will be the real test for a Tory recovery, for when the Holyrood test comes in May 2011, we shall probably be near the end of Cameron's first year in power – after many very difficult and austere economic decisions.

The problem for Goldie will be that votes won in Scotland by default are easily lost. Without any philosophical, moral or emotional commitment, the electorate's support in getting Labour out will melt at the first by-election, council elections or Holyrood elections. After hopefully gaining ground next year, it could all be for naught, as the Tories become the target and the SNP is rewarded. That would spell danger for not only the Scottish Tories – but the Union too.

This is certainly the way Alex Salmond is thinking at the moment. He welcomes the idea of a Tory government at Westminster, and that is why Cameron has spent the past year – and this Perth conference too – explaining he will do his best to work with a Nationalist government in Edinburgh. He's laying the ground for the fall-outs that will most certainly come, so he can claim Salmond has engineered them – a spendthrift who fails to recognise governments must balance their books.

Goldie may believe that, when you're smiling, the whole world smiles with you, but it is no substitute for realpolitik. It will only take Cameron's first decision from Downing Street that is perceived to be injurious to Scotland's interests, and the smile will be wiped off her face.

Goldie could help Cameron by making her party not just a temporary receptacle of opposition but also attractive intellectually and emotionally – and saying it is willing to share power. That would make voting Conservative in Scotland far more worthwhile and, in a proportional voting system, pay her handsome dividends.

&#149 Brian Monteith, a former Conservative and then independent MSP, is policy director of ThinkScotland.org.