Brian Monteith: Unionists fail to force an answer

Published on Friday 29 April 2011 14:28

If the other three parties would make the SNP hold their independence referendum, politics could move on

THERE is a prevailing view that election campaigns are often won or lost by singular moments that propel a leader to defeat or ignominy. The hubris of Kinnock's Sheffield Wednesday and the leaking of a young girl's identity in the case of "Jennifer's Ear" undoubtedly contributed to Labour's defeat in 1992.

Gordon Brown's "bigoted woman" comment was another example of how an election campaign can be derailed, while, only a few years earlier, the staged eating of ice cream cones by Blair and Brown served to deny any concerns that they were unable to work together.

This week we have the fourth general election for the Scottish Parliament in its 12-year history as a democratic institution and Alex Salmond continues to look the likely winner, by having under his command the most members at Holyrood.

If this scenario plays out there will be those who will claim that Iain Gray's retreat into a Subway sandwich bar when confronted by a remonstrative voter was a turning point that Labour never really recovered from. It will also be said that Salmond's campaign has been smooth while Labour's has been lumpy at best, all meaning that the election has been won and lost over the last few weeks.

I think this line of argument is illusory for, while those have been contributory factors, they are not the cause of electoral defeat, but merely symptoms of Labour's loss of nerve. The root cause is that Labour's strategy has been wrong since Wendy Alexander resigned as the party's Scottish leader in 2008.

Indeed, the fundamental strategy of all three unionist parties towards the SNP has been wrong, for all three steadfastly refuse to challenge the SNP over its core policy of independence by having the referendum that could deal it a mortal blow.

Last week Iain Gray was right to raise the issue of the SNP's aim of sovereign independence, but he was wrong to cower again from the confrontation that could lay it to rest.

Wendy Alexander, and other Labour MSPs I spoke to in 2007, believed they had to face the SNP, and the creation of the Calman Commission was part of a strategy to retain a Scottish patriotism while doing so.That Labour and the other unionist parties have hardly mentioned the additional powers coming directly as a result of the commission shows we now have what can only be called a "Yellow Unionism" that lacks any moral authority or self-belief.

There are at least three policies that Alex Salmond advocates that are completely at odds with making the delivery of independence easier and more affordable, yet the yellow unionists rarely point this out, preferring instead to talk about his record - a platform he is well suited to defending.

The debate surrounding the SNP plans for a local income tax focuses on the likely premium that would be added to the standard rate of national income tax, as this allows people to know how much it will cost them and if they will be a winner or loser - the yardstick that most people use to determine if they will support it or not. The SNP says the figure will be about 3.5p, but this includes an allowance for a sum of 374 million in benefit payments that the UK Treasury pays out in council tax benefit, because the property-based tax does not take account of incomes.

Whether or not one believes that 374m should continue to be forthcoming for a local income tax, there can be no doubt whatsoever that an independent Scotland would have to find that subsidy itself. Local income tax would be more expensive for those faced with paying it in an independent Scotland. Salmond cannot deny this.

With university tuition fees, the SNP says that the solution for the looming funding gap - that is likely to be close to 260m - is that English students should be made to pay more. Whether or not one thinks that this policy will work and that the higher fees will not simply drive English students away, would not matter in an independent Scotland, for then the English students would be treated like any other members of the European Union, such as Spaniards, Germans and Danes and be entitled to a free university education.

At a stroke, the Scottish Government would have to find the cost of educating English students who, as a group, have traditionally found Scottish universities attractive. It is difficult to see how the introduction of tuition fees for Scottish students could then be avoided. Higher education would be more expensive for those faced with paying it in an independent Scotland. Salmond cannot deny this.

Then there is renewable energy.Alex Salmond believes that Scotland can generate 100 per cent of its current demand by 2020 through the use of renewable systems that, in such a short time, must rely on thousands of wind turbines.

Whatever the merits of their power-generating capability - the doubts of many engineers and scientists compared to the optimism of the commercial interests and government-funded lobbyists is a cause for concern - there is no escaping that wind turbines are heavily subsidised by higher charges forced upon on coal, gas and nuclear generation and managed by the UK Treasury.

In an independent Scotland the net transfer of monies from English consumers to Scottish wind farmers would cease and the subsidy transfer would have to be borne solely by Scottish consumers. Electricity consumption would be more expensive for those faced with paying for it in an independent Scotland. Salmond cannot deny this.

There are those that say Scotland could export its wind-generated energy but they ignore the fact that England is already connected to the French nuclear supply that costs 1.3p per kWh while British (mainly Scottish) wind power costs 14p per kWh when the 5.5p subsidy is removed.

Alex Salmond's latest energy policy would not only risk catastrophic failure of regular and reliable electricity for all Scots - it would become exceedingly expensive.

These are just three examples of SNP policy where one can see that Alex Salmond's policies are at odds with independence. I suspect there could be more were I to look for them. Ironically, Alex Salmond's government is making Scotland more dependent on England, not less, and wants to increase this dependence.

Yet the yellow unionists choose not to focus on these weaknesses in the SNP case and choose to avoid at all costs the possibility of putting the independence question to the people so that we can decide for ourselves.

If, as I believe, the SNP were to lose an independence referendum, it would cause a crisis of confidence that would see its leadership placed in turmoil, with Alex Salmond unlikely to remain on the scene, and it would set back the SNP's core belief for a generation.

Whatever the outcome, after this Thursday's votes are counted, the unionist parties owe it to the Scottish people to reconsider their position on an independence referendum.

Dealing with this issue would at last return Scottish politics to questions about what economic and social policies are best suited to Scotland rather than how we are governed, and remove the need for an SNP.

• Brian Monteith is a former MSP and policy director of ThinkScotland.org