Bill Jamieson: Why this fiery Comet Coalition just dare not slow down

Published on Thursday 29 July 2010 15:13

BARELY ten weeks in office and the Liberal Democrat-Conservative coalition continues to defy politically improbable odds. "This bird cannot fly" was the consensus opinion at the outset. However, the most remarkable feature is not just its take-off, but also the sheer velocity of the flight.

Far from retreating into a feeble, timid government, shrinking from doing anything for fear of opening up cross-party and intra-party splits and divisions, it has set in motion a range of the most radical reforms in modern government. Many, both in politics and in business, have been stunned at the scope and speed of the changes now being embarked upon.

First, the immediate 6.2 billion of spending cuts; then the austerity Budget; the (albeit wobbly) launch of the Office of Budget Responsibility; radical change in the provision of education in England; changes to criminal sentencing policy in England; a shake-up in foreign policy, with more emphasis on the emerging powerhouses of Asia Pacific; a drive against useless laws and red tape; major reform of financial sector regulation and plans for sweeping changes in pensions and long-term saving; pressing ahead with a referendum on the Alternative Vote system; time scales set down for implementation of the Calman Commission reforms; and now legislation to scrap the "retire at 65" rule.

Several of these have the potential to smash this coalition and may very well do. But phew! This is no shrinking, barely palpitating blue/orange glow in the sky, but a flaming meteor of reform: a veritable Comet Coalition.

Welcome to Momentum Politics, an approach to government based on the premise that its very survival depends on proceeding at a frenetic pace. It is as if the very idea of slowdown would destroy it. Like riding a bicycle, the slower the speed, the greater the risk of wobble.

Arguably the oddest paradox of all is that the coalition is pushing ahead with so many reforms on so many fronts when the Treasury cupboard is bare and when we have entered a period of public finance austerity set to last for years. Spending budgets are being slashed, public sector headcount cut and money for new projects has evaporated.

Conventional political wisdom would suggest that no government can proceed for long on empty, and that it is only governments with healthy revenues and bulging Treasury coffers that can buy voter favours and survive the course. Momentum Politics of the type we are seeing now would be impossible

But it is the very fact of austerity that is compelling many of the changes the coalition has set out to make. It is not just that bond markets (your pension fund and mine) are mindful to see a sustained reduction in the Budget deficit; it is that we are being driven to change.

Necessity is the mother of invention. You only have to look at the Crawford Beveridge Independent Budget Review and the options it sets out, and talk of cash raised by restructuring Scottish Water that could save cuts elsewhere, to see how true this is.

Policy actions unthinkable a few years ago are now on the agenda precisely because we have to think hard, fast and differently as to what our real needs are on central and local government spending, to priorities these and to find ways of delivering them more efficiently. How we rebuild trust and encourage long-term household saving to reduce future pensioner poverty is as important as government borrowing reduction.

So the Comet Coalition and the momentum politics driving it, fills the political sky. Many of the reforms have long been needed. And governments can quickly lose that critical, driving sense of mission and the cohesion such mission engenders. However, it is absolutely fraught with dangers.

A coalition is, by its very nature, prone to philosophical and practical divisions. The Conservatives are forever split. There are those who lean towards a small state and gradualist approach to reform, fearful of the law of unintended consequence. And there are the Disraeli-ite radicals who draw on a tradition of progressive radicalism. A state without the means of change, as the conservative philosopher Edmund Burke pointed out, is a state without the means of its conservation.

The Lib Dems, for their part, are split between their ambition for historic voting reform, bringing the prospect of permanent political breakthrough, and their opposition to many Conservative policies - all now intensified by the need for unpopular spending cuts. But action is needed. You cannot build many schools and hospitals from a debt interest bill this year alone of 37bn. Do nothing, and this debt interest soars.

Such is the speed of reform that some coalition policies are heading for real trouble. The plan for a referendum on AV - not just the clash on timing with the Holyrood elections - is one . The Conservatives don't want the AV system, but have agreed to a referendum. The Lib Dems want a referendum, but are none too happy with AV. Labour reluctantly agreed to a referendum, but doesn't like AV. So why are we having a referendum on AV? Labour is now opposed to the equalisation of parliamentary constituencies. Was it always so?

Such are the complications of party politics, Hampton Court Maze with moving hedges would be simpler. Similar trouble looms in Scotland over the 2015 "triple witching" of a Holyrood election, a super-charged Scottish election campaign with new Calman powers, and a Westminster fixed parliament vote.

These are big problems longer term. But for now, the Comet Coalition is coming down the line and hurtling towards the autumn party conference season at a velocity incredible.

Derailment risks are rising. The instinct is to hit the brakes and slow down. The irony is the comet may need more momentum than ever.