Ben Lynfield: Netanyahu may yet prove to be the peacemaker

Published on Friday 3 September 2010 15:10

By addressing Palestinians in a markedly warm and dignified way, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu emerged with his standing enhanced at this week's relaunch of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.

To his Palestiniain counterpart, Mahmoud Abbas, the Israeli PM turned and said during the US State Department ceremony: "I see in you a partner for peace. Together we can lead our peoples to a historic future putting an end to claims and conflict.''

Later he told Mr Abbas: "I fully respect your people's desire for sovereignty. I'm convinced it's possible to reconcile that desire with Israelis need for security.''

This was the language of peace, not threats, closures and blockades. It could be a good beginning for reconciliation. The big question Israelis are asking themselves now is whether Mr Netanyahu intends to follow up his rhetorical adjustments with a major realignment of Israeli policy in the form of a two-state peace compromise that the Palestinians could consider seriously. "No-one knows the answer," says Yossi Alpher, former head of the Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies. "Maybe even Netanyahu doesn't know.''

What is certain is that Mr Netanyahu's standing in Israeli politics today is so strong that he can make that fateful choice - stagnation and conflict or Israeli peace push - himself. Within his party and to the right there is no alternative to him. And in a pinch he knows he could rely on the centrist opposition Kadima party, the largest in parliament, to back up peace moves. Mr Netanyahu during the past year-and-a-half in power has consistently cajoled and placated his right-wing constituency and partners on the issue of West Bank settlements rather than confront them even as he has largely outmanoeuvred Washington.

On Wednesday, in another possible shedding of past habits, he was insistent a Hamas attack that killed four Israelis on Tuesday would not be allowed to rattle the diplomacy. "The slaughter will not stop the peace talks,'' he said in contrast to his former practice in opposition of denouncing peace contacts in the face of terror attacks

It is a maxim in Israeli politics that only the right can make the real territorial concessions needed for a durable, publicly supported peace. The left-wing under Yitzhak Rabin tried with the 1993 Oslo accord. But his assassination two years later killed the deal. Thereafter the breakdown of peace talks at Camp David in 2000 led to the second intifada uprising.

The emergence of Mr Netanyahu as a strong rightwing peace leader, a Menachem Begin if not a Charles De Gaulle, cannot be completely discounted. But beyond the warm words there has been no indication he has come around in practical terms to viewing the Palestinians as full partners deserving of a fully sovereign state.For a real change there will have to be a transformation in policy and deeds, not just vocabulary.

One sign of real change would be for him to extend the partial moratorium Israel has placed on settlement expansion in the West Bank. It will run out on 26 September after ten months. Mr Abbas is in an untenable position holding talks while Israeli construction vehicles swallow parts of the would-be Palestinian state. The act of a real peace partner would be to stop the building.

Similarly, he could drop his demand that the Palestinians recognise Israel as a Jewish state. Israel's previous treaty partners, Jordan and Egypt, were never required to meet that demand, which Palestinians view as akin to dropping in advance the Palestinian refugee issue. They also worry it would harm Israel's Arab minority.

For his part, Mr Netanyahu has refused to agree the basis of the talks be the Arab-Israeli armistice lines that prevailed until the 1967 war.

"There is a positive change but so far it is mostly verbal and limited to hints,'' says Wadie Abu Nassar, director of the Haifa-based International Centre for Consultations think-tank. He said Mr Netanyahu may well come around to realise a peace deal is in Israel's interests "when the alternatives to it are wars and isolation''.

Some Israeli analysts believe the change in tone by Mr Netanyahu has more to do with pleasing Washington than the Palestinians. "He's making the right sounds, he knows this is important for Obama,'' said Uri Dromi, a former spokesman for the late Mr Rabin.