Barnaby Eales: Does this signal the end for Eta?

Published on Monday 23 May 2011 16:03

WHILE the success of Spain's opposition conservatives, the Partido Popular, is unprecedented in its scale, the more surprising result was the electoral success in local and provincial elections of Bildu, the new Basque pro-independence coalition.

Bildu's victory hit the news like a giant wave, flooding the steep mountains and valleys of Euskadi, its villages, towns and cities with the hope that the result could accelerate the end of the Basque terror group, Eta, one of Europe's last remaining guerrilla organisations.

Local elections this time round were held free of threat of the bomb and the bullet but also without legal restriction on political representation for Bildu. It led to the coalition winning more than 25 per cent of the Basque vote, the highest number of councillors in the Basque country and the highest number of votes in the city of San Sebastian. It was the second most voted for party in the Basque country, third in the city of Pamplona and fourth in the former kingdom of Navarre.

The unprecedented electoral success for the leftist Basque independence movement within Bildu, which categorically rejects violence, shows Eta guerrillas have politically lost any social support that previously allowed them, in their view, to continue with violence and killings.

"This marks the definitive withdrawal of Eta," Bildu leader Pello Urizar said. "These results show that whatever social support that Eta ever had has now disappeared."

It is thought that a definitive end to Eta, together with a new candidate for prime minister running in an improved economy, may help reduce the likelihood of a second major defeat for the Spanish Socialists in the general election in March 2012. Jos Luis Rodrguez Zapatero, who has previously announced he will not run then, said yesterday that, despite the magnitude of the opposition's victory, he would not bring the election forward to the autumn.

It is widely believed that attempts from the Spanish government and law courts in Madrid to outlaw the coalition, due to its alleged links to Eta's former political wing, Batasuna, backfired, sparking a campaign of defence of Bildu from those usually unlikely to support it. In the run-up to the elections, Spain's Constitution Court overturned a ruling from Spain's Supreme Court, which had banned Bildu from fielding candidates at the election.

Bildu's creation, involving the former Batasuna, had sparked fears in Spain from conservative sectors that Eta had once again found a way into public institutions and finance through Bildu - what Spain's interior minister, Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba, had called Eta's electoral "Plan B" following the prohibition of Basque party Sortu in March.

Despite what is now a bright prospect of a final end of Eta, Madrid remains concerned over the political impact of what that end may bring.Bildu's nationalist rival, the Basque Nationalist Party PNV, yesterday won an absolute majority in the city of Bilbao. Even if Basque nationalists obtain the definitive end of violence of Eta, Madrid-based Spanish daily El Mundo said in its editorial on Monday: "Spain will have to confront a huge political problem because Bildu and the PNV constitute a clear pro-independence majority."

If Bildu's electoral success does bring about a fast end to Eta, both clear winners of yesterday's elections will be challenged to move themselves from intransigent, entrenched positions - something that has all too often marked the immature nature of Spain's youthful democracy.