Andrew Arbuckle: Independence debate must cut industry a straight furrow

Published on Monday 30 January 2012 00:00

THE caricature of council meetings is one where the councillors spend hours discussing the colour of the curtains in the council chamber and then nod through a budget involving millions of pounds.

If you doubt the veracity of that, I recently attended a meeting where the systemic failings in the council IT infrastructure were on the agenda.

One councillor, who had not taken on the gravity of the problem, raised her hand to inform everyone that she was having difficulties with her BlackBerry.

A colleague who had listened to the failings in the computer system then chipped in that his holiday baggage had gone amiss as a result of a similar fault at some overseas airport.

This is rather a roundabout way of introducing my concerns that we are spending a great deal of time arguing how many questions there should be on an independence ballot sheet while I would like to know about the endgame.

In farming terms, in an independent Scotland, shall I be living in the Elysian fields or shall I be looking at a barren and abandoned landscape?

A couple of weeks ago, as we awaited the arrival of the UK agricultural minister, the farming press ganged up on Nigel Miller, NFU Scotland president, to ask the union’s position on independence.

Wisely, and no doubt thinking that across the breadth of his membership there would be a range of views, he ducked the question.

The question that should have been asked, and I am doing it now, is how in economic terms will farming fare if we become an independent nation? It is an economic query, not a political one.

I have heard the claim that Scotland will become the sixth most prosperous country in the world but is this just political rhetoric or potential reality?

We seem to be running largely on emotion, while I would like to see robust economic figures before I put a tick in either one box or several boxes.

Since the establishment of the Scottish Parliament in 1999, farming has been at the forefront of devolution and it now has many rural policies specifically suited to this country. Economi-cally, it has always operated as an essential part of the UK.

England is the largest single market for Scottish farm produce but will this equation change with separation? There is a whole stack of questions, such as two thirds of Scottish beef and lamb goes to England and 80 per cent of the pig meat, but will Scottish independence encourage more regions of England to launch their brands and will they then take more of the market based on a “buy local, buy British campaign”?

One Scottish farming and marketing entrepreneur has suggested there is a backlash on some of his products in the English market. This is to be regretted, but will petty nationalism south of the Border become a more common feature and, if so, what are the economic consequences?

That is an important issue because Scotland is a net exporter of most of its farm produce; while beef and lamb top the list, potatoes, soft fruit, and vegetables also head south in large tonnages.

There is one exception to the above and that is grain, which is ubiquitous and will continue to flow to and fro across the Border.

I am sure the Scottish whisky industry will continue to resist any suggestion that its product must be made with Scottish grain.

I have no doubt that one of the biggest changes with an independent Scotland might be in the value of land brought about either by a desire to buy a bit of the old country or a fear that legislation or taxation might skew against the landowner.

What effects will this have on farm balance sheets, many of them propped up by bank loans and overdrafts?

However, the biggest economic issue for farmers is where Scottish representatives will be in Europe? Like it or lump it, the reality is EU negotiations on the Common Agricultural Policy will determine the profitability or otherwise of Scottish farming.

Will the Scottish team be at the member states’ table as some would wish or expect? The present subsidiary seating within the UK team may be considered unsatisfactory but is it better than an unconfirmed future role?

My point is that no-one seems to be working out these sums and providing answers. We have plenty of politicians pontificating but we are short of economists providing answers on the financial future of farming.

Are we sleepwalking into an unknown future?

I know where my heart lies, but my head is still to be convinced.

Comments

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low noise

Friday, February 3, 2012 at 01:31 PM

Response to organic peasant: I wish you and your family well.

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Organic peasant

Thursday, February 2, 2012 at 05:50 PM

ln it is of course you that lacks understanding of sovereignty, residency, citizenship and passports. EU citizenship cannot be stolen by the actions of another state no matter how many capital letters that states supporters use. I am however gratified that my family and children seem safe from "nullification" if not deafness by capital letter.

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low noise

Thursday, February 2, 2012 at 04:50 PM

Response to organic peasant: I am not sure if you are winding me up or you genuinely do not understand. If Scotland becomes independent, she is no longer a part of the United Kingdom and therfore her citizens are no longer members of the EU, hence your BritishEU passports are no longer valid. Scotlands independence will not affect germany etc and i fail to see any sense in your comments on that. If England became independent, we too would no longer be in the EU and our passports would not be valid. Why? because the EU membership is held by the UK. NOT Scotland NOT England NOT wales and NOT Northern Ireland but by the United Kingdom.

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Organic peasant

Thursday, February 2, 2012 at 08:03 AM

I never mentioned the English ln. I am deeply unhappy with the London government, they are not the same thing. Can you clarify how London intends to nullify EU passports? Have they informed the other member states? Germany France and all the rest may be a tad upset that their citizens have been held captive and their documents stolen. My family and children also have non EU passports. I wonder how London intends to nullify them? Is this what Trident is for perhaps? Destruction of the worlds largest military may be beyond even it however and they may be bit upset about its use to "nullify" passports in order to keep Scots residents who support independence under control. Pathetic scaremongering of the first water

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low noise

Wednesday, February 1, 2012 at 03:59 PM

Response to "organic peasant" You must get away from this "wicked English" mindset. If you genuinely feel you are not getting fair treatment, then give your MP and your MSP and your MEP a good swift kick up their collective, jacksey, and tell them to do what you pay them for EG to look after your interests. How much more representation can you have? On the issue of EU membership and passports. You are being deliberately misled. After independence, if it comes and I hope it does not, you will have both your British passports and EU passports nullified and will have to apply for a Scottish passport in order to travel. Even then that passport will only be recognised in those countries that "recognise" Scotand as an independent state. You will be aware that Kosovo is being administered by the UN in order for it's citizens to travel overseas as few countries "recognise" its right to independence. Contrary to your comments Scotland is NOT an EU state now. The UK is the EU state and Scotland is part of the UK, at least for now.

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Organic peasant

Wednesday, February 1, 2012 at 08:10 AM

Scotland is an EU state now, short of the London government sending the army round to every house in the land and confiscating our EU passports that cannot change. Scotland will have free access to all markets just as Ireland has now. As to the CAP an independent Scotland would see payments rise 3 fold to bring them up to the EU average. We receive less rural development money now that Romania. London treats us disgracefully the 2 hour visit of Spelman above is more than adequate proof.

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low noise

Monday, January 30, 2012 at 04:10 PM

These are important and valid questions. I am English, from the much despised South East. i am an avowed Unionist and lover of all things Scots. But the rhetoric coming out of the SNP and their supporters has turned even me into a doubter about Scotland. How can they be so disloyal to me?My own countrymenn! What did I do to be so hated North of the border that they are wiiling to give school children the vote to be rid of me? If independence should come about for Scotland, there will be a backlash from England. Hell haf no fury like a woman scorned. The legal position is interesting. An independent Scotland will secede from the UK and simitaneously secede from the EU. People are suggesting that Mr Salmond made a faux pas by saying Scotland will still be in the United Kingdom but fiscally and politically independent, but he did not. The thinking is that if he can show that Scotland still is part of the UK then they can argue that they are still entitled to EU membership. Clever but dodgy. I personally think that Spain who has similar problems with the Catalans and Basques, Italy who has similar problems with the Northern league, France who have similar problems with the Basques, Belgium who have similar problems with the walloons and Germany who have similar problems with Bavaria will not have any of it and will insist gets in the queu behind Turkey. That will see a border going up between us and Scottish exports into the UK put in the "Non EU" bracket along with African produce. A most unsatisfactory situation in my book

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Daye Tucker

Monday, January 30, 2012 at 12:42 PM

Seems to me if the marketing entrepreneur has noted a backlash on some of his products there's petty nationalism operating on both sides of the border, generated no doubt by the nonsense and misinformation perpetrated by normally sensible MPs unaware of the collateral damage they are inflicting. Scottish lambs presently go south to Dunbia to become Welsh lamb, some have even been known to return to Scotland as Welsh lamb. I can't see the mass market being affected, where else will they get the decreasing global supply of lamb from, even further afield than from their next door neighbour? The good folk of England are not going to forego their quality Scotch Beef either. Richard Lochhead has worked hard to create a high value quality food and drink industry. In or out of the UK, in or out of the EU, there will be an increasing global demand for food, and niche markets have always survived in times of economic stress. The products from Scotland's farmers, with their high welfare standards and healthy environment will continue to be in demand.

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kazlou

Monday, January 30, 2012 at 08:54 AM

With no guarantee on an Independant Scotland becoming an EU state I think people need to look long and hard before jumping into independence. With no EU membership things like subsidy disappear - can farming in scotland survive without it? Now I am not particularly patriotic but believe Scotland is a great country but lets look at all of this carefully are we gaining independence or putting a noose around every citizens neck? No farming subsidy = less production = more imports = higher food costs how many people will then be below the poverty line? How many people will be out of a job? less production = less processers= less ancillary industries including butchers, slaughterhouses, grain processers, storage, agri advisors, less fuel being used, garagesrepair facilities going out of business etc etc etc The knock on effect could be potentially massive Think carefully Scotland and yes I know some of you will say I'm scaremongering but until you can prove to me without a doubt that we will have exactly the same standing in europe and the economy will not be "rocked" then I will continue to explore the potential downfalls to independence.

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