Analysis: The confrontations are still to come

Published on Wednesday 22 December 2010 16:36

Barack Obama has rebounded from his party's drubbing in the November congressional elections with the kind of victory list that any White House would want: a tax deal, a repeal of the ban on openly gay military service and a major nuclear treaty with Russia.

Each represents a different approach at deal-making, but none alone offers a clear path to governing in a divided capital over the next two years.

In the seven weeks since the mid-term elections, Mr Obama negotiated with Republican leaders on taxes and left angry liberals on the sidelines. On the New Start arms treaty, he sidelined Republican Senate leaders and negotiated with like-minded Republicans. And with the repeal of the Pentagon's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy on gays in uniform, he delighted liberals, won Republican rank-and-file support and left conservatives fuming.

Mr Obama finds himself at a crossroads. Faced with an ascendant Republican party and a restless electorate, the White House is happily holding up the president's recent successes as a sign of new outreach.

"This won't be a model for everything over the next two years, but it provides a strong foundation to build on," said Dan Pfeiffer, the White House communications director.

The year-end congressional session, however, is not an altogether clear template for the future. Democrats for now still control the House of Representatives and the Senate; next year Republicans will take over the House and gain seats in the Senate. The recent issues that have lent themselves to compromise have been easier than the hurdles the White House will have to clear in the next two years, leading inexorably to the 2012 presidential elections, where confrontation, not co-operation, will dominate.