Analysis: All to play for in £33bn game of political poker

Published on Saturday 10 January 2009 18:53

IN ANY game of poker where the stakes are high, players are well advised to keep their cards close to their chests.

In this 33bn game of political poker the stakes cannot come any higher, yet already one of the political parties has broken the golden rule.

By demanding a two pence cut in income tax, the Liberal Democrats have shown their hand far too early. So far the other parties have yet to make the same mistake and are keeping the fine detail of their demands a closely guarded secret.

With the SNP minority government only having 47 of Holyrood's 129 MSPs, Alex Salmond must win the support of at least some of his enemies.

Last year, Salmond challenged the other parties to bring down the government by rejecting his Budget – a tactic that worked. This year, however, such an approach would not be popular with an electorate far more interested in surviving the recession than political grandstanding.

It was the Conservatives and the Greens, who rode to Salmond's rescue last year. This year the signs are that an almost identical deal will be hatched. The two Green MSPs want 100m a year for free insulation for houses – a figure that looks to be well out of reach. But it is likely that some sort of fudge will be arrived at that will enable the Greens' Patrick Harvie to claim that progress has been made.

Meanwhile, Labour are already claiming that the 16 Tories have become too close to the SNP and argue that they are not playing hard enough ball to wring out some truly significant concessions.

Labour, however, are faced with their own difficulties. Senior figures acknowledge that it is difficult to vote down a government for the sake of it during times of economic hardship.

Calls to drop the SNP's controversial local income tax plan and the Scottish Futures Trust will continue, but Labour's negotiations will focus more on seeking measures to protect jobs.

D-Day in Parliament is January 28 when the final stage of the Bill comes before the chamber. Needless to say, the talks will go right down to the wire. But as the recession bites, it is practically impossible to see John Swinney's Budget falling at the Holyrood hurdle.