Alex Salmond in poll position as SNP surge

Published on Sunday 17 April 2011 00:46

ALEX Salmond is on course for a second term in office with an exclusive poll today revealing that the SNP is stretching ahead of Labour in the 2011 election race.

The YouGov poll for Scotland on Sunday shows that the Nationalists have surged ahead of their main opponents in the first stage of the campaign and currently stand to win a six-seat victory over Labour on 5 May.

Such a result would offer the SNP leader the chance to form a second minority government at Holyrood for the next five years, with his party either able to turn to the Conservatives for backing, or seek a deal with a combination of the Tories, the LibDems and the Greens.

For Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray, however, the poll reveals an alarming slump in his party's fortunes since YouGov polled voters just two weeks ago with Labour leaking support on both the constituency and list vote.

On the crucial regional list vote, the poll reveals a striking change of fortunes, with Labour plunging by six points and the SNP gaining three points. It means the SNP has turned a seven-point deficit behind Labour at the end of March into a two-point lead.

SNP campaign chiefs claimed last night the shift was a response to their decision to cast the regional vote as a vote to elect Salmond as First Minister.

The poll also shows that Gray is also falling further behind Salmond as voters' preferred First Minister, with double the number of respondents - 57 per cent - choosing Salmond over his main rival.

Compared to the YouGov poll on 25-28 March, the SNP's constituency vote stays the same at 40 per cent, Labour drop two to 37 per cent, the Tories hold steady on 11 per cent, while the Lib Dems pick up three points to 8 per cent. On the regional list, the SNP climb three points to 35 per cent, while Labour fall by six points to 33 per cent, The Tories stay on 12 per cent, the LibDems gain 2 points to 7 per cent, while the Greens are on 6 per cent.

That shift in fortunes has pushed the SNP into a clear lead over Labour in terms of seats. According to an analysis by John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, the poll would give the SNP 55 seats, Labour 49, the Conservatives 14, the LibDems 6 and the Greens 5.

The poll was conducted at the end of last week in the wake of the SNP's manifesto launch and Salmond's appearance on Question Time. Labour must therefore hope that the extensive coverage given to its opponents has exaggerated the SNP's support.

Furthermore, on YouGov's raw figures, unadjusted for likelihood to vote, the two parties remain neck and neck, suggesting that Labour could still catch the SNP if it can persuade stay-at-home voters to turn out.

Overall, however, the poll is a huge boost for the SNP, confirming predictions from party chiefs in recent days that it was picking up support as the campaign enters its final three weeks.

Salmond's appeal among voters is also strengthening, according to the poll, with the number of people who would choose him as First Minister over Gray increasing from 48 per cent to 52 per cent over the last fortnight. The number who back Gray has fallen from 33 per cent to 27 per cent.

However, Labour managers insist that canvass returns from key constituencies showed them on track to make gains against the SNP.

Johann Lamont, the Scottish Labour deputy leader, said: "The SNP are taking voters for granted by declaring the result of the election before a single vote has been cast, but now the Tories are back (in Westminster], Labour will fight up until the wire for what really matters - jobs, fairness, getting Scots back to work. This poll shows there is all to fight for and the result is too close to call."

SNP campaign director Angus Robertson said the decision to cast the regional list vote as a vote for "Alex Salmond for First Minister" was bearing fruit. He said: "The SNP's message of 'Alex Salmond for First Minister' is giving our campaign a major boost in every part of Scotland," he said.

Tory campaign chief David McLetchie said: "We know from the doorsteps of Scotland that people are warming to (party leader] Annabel Goldie's message of common sense and telling it like it is."

On a possible deal with the SNP, he added: "Once the votes are counted, our sole test will be to do what is in the best interests of Scotland. As we have repeatedly said, we rule nothing in and we rule nothing out."

A Lib Dem spokesperson said: "Pollsters predicted we wouldn't win the Dunfermline by-election, we wouldn't get an MEP and we'd lose half our MPs. They got it wrong every time. The only poll that counts is 5 May and Liberal Democrats are focused on campaigning on real issues that matter to Scotland - growing the economy, keeping services local and restoring excellence to education."

A spokesman for the Greens added: "If this poll is right, there'll be a real boost to Green MSPs on 5 May, and a strong set of voices at Holyrood to oppose these cuts to public services."

• Leader of the Scottish Greens Patrick Harvey will be taking part in a live webchat on scotsman.com on Monday, April 18 at 12pm.

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