Alex Salmond bears witness to shift in UK-EU relations, but what next for Scotland?
First Minister Alex Salmond has some pressing questions to consider in light of David Cameron's dramatic veto at the EU summit. Picture: David Cheskin/PA Wire
Eddie Barnes addresses the issues the EU crisis has thrown up for Alex Salmond
DAVID Cameron’s decision at 2.30am on Friday morning to play the British veto on a new treaty has ensured that Britain’s relationship with Europe has irrevocably changed. Meanwhile, the rest of Europe has committed itself to tighter fiscal union, in the hope of ensuring that the debt crisis, on-going at present, cannot happen again. This weekend, as the pieces begin to settle, the repercussions from that decision are beginning to form. And, in Scotland, as it makes its slow path towards a referendum on independence in around 2014, the implications are becoming clearer. So how exactly does Friday change the political calculus for the SNP and its hopes of Scottish independence?
What is the SNP’s currency policy on Europe?
The SNP insists Scotland would be a “succession state”. In other words, as Scotland is already in the EU, it would inherit the same position as it does at present as part of the UK – including the opt-out from the euro. So, after negotiations, it believes it would become a new EU country, but would be able to retain the pound. The SNP says it would do this until the time was right for a referendum on joining the euro. Alex Salmond said in 2009 that Scotland needed to be in a “European framework” on monetary policy. However, these days SNP ministers are keen to highlight the fact that they’d keep the pound first.
Why has Friday altered things?
For two reasons. Firstly, the Eurozone nations have now agreed a “fiscal pact”, which will give Brussels far greater oversight of individual nations’ budgets. This may not be amenable to SNP supporters who do not want simply to gain independence only to hand more control to the EU. Secondly, Britain’s newly-minted semi-detached status within Europe will now make it harder for the SNP to guarantee both membership of sterling and the EU, come independence. This is because, while not likely, Friday has raised the possibility that the UK may end up out of the EU. Staying with the pound after independence might create the impression that Scotland was joining with the UK in its stance on Europe – making it 26 versus two. Is this the SNP’s desired vision for Scotland?
What is the SNP saying?
SNP ministers did not speak to the UK government prior to Friday’s talks. External affairs minister Fiona Hyslop was unavailable for comment on Friday. A spokeswoman for the Scottish Government simply repeated the SNP’s line that Scotland “urgently needs a voice at the top table when our vital national interests are being discussed”. Just about the only person talking was MEP Alyn Smith who said on radio on Friday morning that, in six months, “I think you will find the UK sinking a lot faster than the Eurozone is. The Eurozone is getting its act together.” Alex Salmond, who returns from China today after a week-long visit, has not yet pronounced on the summit.
What have the SNP’s opponents said?
They claim the SNP leadership’s “silence speaks volumes”. They argue the SNP wants to join the euro, but has now seen its strategy scrambled by events. On Friday, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander hit out at the SNP’s policy of staying with sterling, saying it would leave Scotland in the same position as peripheral Eurozone countries. In other words, monetary policy (e.g. interest rates and the money supply) would be decided by a foreign power (the Bank of England). This would prevent Scotland, for example, from printing money as the Bank is now doing to mitigate the credit crunch, he claimed.
So why not just back the euro?
Despite Salmond’s 2009 comments, the fact is that given the current turmoil in the Eurozone, such a pledge would be politically disastrous. Very few people in Scotland are likely to be won over by a pledge to join a currency in crisis. Nor are they likely to be won over by the idea that it should be bureaucrats in Brussels who get oversight of Scotland’s spending plans before they do.
If the euro and the pound are both problematic, are there any other options?
Yes. The SNP could always “float the groat” – or promise to create a new independent Scottish currency. This would guarantee monetary independence for Scotland, ensuring that neither an overbearing Brussels nor London could tell Scotland what to do. Scotland would essentially copy Norway. It has its own currency, is not a member of the EU, but gets access to the European single market by being a member of the European Free Trade Association. However, this option would leave Scotland exposed to the international money markets. And one thing that is certain is that a newly independent Scotland would inherit a major chunk of Britain’s national debt. Again, such a move would be difficult to sell to a sceptical public.
What’s likely to happen?
The SNP is in a sticky position with no good options. It is likely to stick with its pledge to remain in sterling, in the knowledge this has the least fear-factor for voters. It has to hope the UK isn’t going to dump the EU (or vice versa). And – between now and 2014 – it will await events, and hope that, by the time the independence referendum comes about, the Eurozone isn’t the disaster area it currently looks like. Then, the prospect of Scotland in the euro may not be as bad an appeal as it looks now.
Email to a friend
Print this page- Family mourn death of Glasgow ‘fight’ schoolboy
- Rangers takeover: Duff & Phelps threaten legal action against BBC
- Today’s youth not fit to be employed, says car firm Arnold Clark
- Rangers administration: Fans fear Duff & Phelps claims could scare off Green
- Rangers takeover: triple penalty punishment enough, says Johnston
- Alistair Darling leads ‘No to independence’ fight over tea and biscuits
- Scottish independence: SNP flip-flops over Nato
- Scottish Independence: SNP ‘won’t be Yes campaign’s only voice’
- Today’s youth not fit to be employed, says car firm Arnold Clark
- Scottish independence: Alex Salmond’s pledge to sign up 1m voters
Looking for...
Featured advertisers
Jobs
Search for a job
Motors
Search for a car
Property
Search for a house
Weather for Edinburgh
Saturday 26 May 2012
Today
Sunny
Temperature: 8 C to 21 C
Wind Speed: 20 mph
Wind direction: North east
Tomorrow
Sunny
Temperature: 11 C to 21 C
Wind Speed: 12 mph
Wind direction: North east
Comments
There are 66 comments to this article
Page 1 of 5
brianwci
Sunday, December 18, 2011 at 04:23 PMI have been swinging round to the Norwegian position for quite some time now. And while Scotland would indeed "inherit a major chunk of Britain’s national debt" it would also inherit an equally large slice of Britain's assets which the unionists always manage to forget, so intent are they on banging the negative drums they love to play with. A recent headline whimpered: More than Half of Scots Reject independence.....................or put another way, Almost Half of Scots Support Independence. The point is, these very high figures supporting Independence are happening BEFORE the actual campaign has even begun. That campaign will explain the reasons for going for Independence and the kind of Scotland Independence would bring. Once that Information Campaign begins then we will see the polls climb well above 50% support for Independence. Let's Do It. Let's VOTE YES.
Gibbo
Sunday, December 18, 2011 at 11:28 AMI do not believe that the majority of Scots wish to remain in the EU as it stands, I for one would like to see the situation that Norway has being adopted, however on attaining independence we will decide by REFERENDUM IN SCOTLAND what our preferences will be, firstly though we must secure control of all ALL our resources then make decisions that is for the benefit of our Scottish people. which of course is the wishes of the Current Scottish Government, a government who works only for the betterement of us. Roll on May 2012.
Cynicus
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 10:08 PM57 - "you will surely agree that' ACTUAL election results are a better test than polls."...No, I don't agree at all. If you are asking a single referendum question then people will respond differently to actually who they want to be their MP's for the next 4 or 5 years.'-#59, Tibially Challenged Douglas Bader ____________________________________________________ But that is irrelevant to your claim. I produce factual evidence that demonstrates conclusively, from differential voting patterns in Scotland and England over THREE European elections, that Scots are less inclined to vote UKIP than English voters. ____________________________________________________ In 1999, moreover, Scots even preferred the Pro-Euro Conservatives to UKIP -while in England the reverse was true by a margin of more than 3 to 1. ____________________________________________________ What does this prove? It proves -and proves conclusively- that your claim in #46 that " Scotland is just as Eurosceptic as England" is an absurd piece of buffoonery.
Cynicus
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 09:55 PM62 Wardog Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 09:07 PM Auf wiedersehen, England ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Your cut and paste skills remain unimpaired. ______________________________________________________ I am curious to know this, though. Did you cut directly from the Der Spiegel headline or my quotation of it on the other thread?
The Harder They Come
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 09:07 PMAuf wiedersehen, England
Danielrober2
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 08:38 PM# 60 well informed ............................ Look that kind of sounds like follows alcohol, with more alcohol is a good thing, all in the same night, It is not. More power on top of more power is for what? A goal, an objective or an unstoppable train. Those are ideas which I disagree with, strongly. ............................ Incidentally there are lots of SNP policies for example smaller class number ratios per pupil to teachers, that I agree with. I also do not think it will be quick to apply such rules, so the SNP need time. I also think whoever is the next First Minister, whichever party should continue to apply the policy. There are lots of other ideas such as the Gathering which I have always thought a good idea, one that will just take time to find its feet. So this accusation that I d=m anything SNP to the basement is nonsense. Government is a complicated entity, one that often takes on more than it can handle.
well informed
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 08:07 PM58 All your garbage means is that you will attack the SNP no matter what they do and say! If they did the exact opposite to everything you complain about you would complain about it! Your posts are meaningless! If as you say devolution means opportunities then clearly what you are saying is the more devolution the more opportunity! So the ultimate in opportunity is the ultimate in devolution i.e Independence!!!!! You cant even do full of sh*t without tripping over it! Idiot!
Tibially Challenged Douglas Bader
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 07:43 PM57 - "you will surely agree that ACTUAL election results are a better test than polls."...No, I don't agree at all. If you are asking a single referendum question then people will respond differently to actually who they want to be their MP's for the next 4 or 5 years.
Danielrober2
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 06:38 PM# 51 well informed .................................. A poor workman blames his tools. Plenty of opportunities have come and unfortunately gone under the SNP devolved government. Not least in the University sector. ................... Brash cheapness is seeing long term research projects risked to attract corporate funding. Projects such as energy and medical drugs will gain funding, but what about other projects which add depth to the academic sector- art, history, poetry, social work, health and fitness, international development, golf course research, public transport analysis, etc etc. How is translation services been paid for and by that I mean art, literature, comic books, films the great diversity of culture. ....................... Scotland was above and beyond expectations in these areas until recently. A casual attitude to the foundations of artistic inspiration should not be underfunded, particular as there is a great modern international enlightenment ongoing at the moment. I am not raising my kids in Scotland because of my fathers father, (though that is important) but due to the healthiness of Scotlands intellectual base. The SNP risks long term research and the refreshment of institutions with young Scots, looking for new opportunities. Devolution is a great opportunity for Scotland higher education sector, one that so far has not been embraced.
Cynicus
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 05:17 PM# 48 "Ayhsore Scot" ___________________________________________________ He uses many aliases -but not this one. Assuming you mean "Ayrshire Scot." ____________________________________________________ While we await you to post an accessible reference to support your claim, you will surely agree that ACTUAL election results are a better test than polls. For example, the outcome on May 6 was more accurate than Fifi's bonkers predictions in FebruaryMarch. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ There was a PERFECT psephological experiment in 1999 when the breakaway (and short-lived) PRO-EURO Conservative Party and UKIP were contenders in that year's European elections ____________________________________________________ Â Across Great Britain, UKIP out-polled the Pro-Euro Conservatives by almost 700, 000 votes (7%) to 138,000 (1.38%). Â But not in Scotland. ____________________________________________________ Â Here the Pro-Euro Conservatives polled 17,781 (1.8%) to UKIP's 12,459 votes (1.3%). ____________________________________________________ What evidence can you adduce that this demonstrably greater pro-Europeanism was atypical of Scotland generally or that it has changed since? ____________________________________________________ On the latter point, you can draw NO comfort from the European elections of 2004 or 2009. In Scotland, UKIP grossly under-polled their colleagues in England who managed to get MEPs elected. Here, their vote in 2009 slipped from its 2004 peak of 79,000 to 58,000-although they managed to beat the BNP and Arthur Scargill's Socialist Labour. ____________________________________________________ This is decisive refutation of your claim in #48. ____________________________________________________ Withdraw it.
Cynicus
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 05:01 PM#48 I've tried hard to track down your poll -but without success. Perhaps you would care to convert to a TinyURL? ____________________________________________________ Beware of UK polls with small Scots sub-samples. If they were adequate predictors then, according to FiFi last February, we should now have 85 SLAB MSPs. We are, as you know, well short of that -although we DO have Ms Kezia Dugdale elected on what her ALTER EGO once derided as "the assisted places scheme."
Il Penseroso
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 03:52 PMWhere is Grahamski?
The Harder They Come
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 02:57 PM48. My god, your a poor man's Smee.
well informed
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 02:40 PM44 Within the UK it doesnt matter what Scots think of the EU it is an irrelevant minority.
stu,dundee
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 02:37 PMhave to be honest here..think the groat is looking pretty good just now.lets be honest with ourselves,cameron has just pitted the whole ov europe against us,for no other reason than to keep the the lucrative financial hub of europe in london.does anyone really believe the frenchgermans are not now looking at ways to move that system to frankfurt..the £ is covered by that and oil..take one away the £ will fall through the floor,take both away the english economy becomes a basket case.scotland has the groat (ok its called the groat from unionists to make it out to be a not to serious currency)so heres what i think..right or wrong its possable..scotland goes for independence..the currency will be the groat .it will be pegged to the pound at its conseption, over a short period of time.the £ will collapse due to the above..the money markets will be looking for a safe haven for there money..step forward the country with a stable goverment. strong currency,an already established banking centre.,surrounded by natural resorces.with people that are looking forward not back..lets not be afraid of what is in front of us,..
Page 1 of 5
Your view
Please sign in to be able to comment on this story.