IT IS an unusual alliance in a country where your religion usually determines your politics: Christians siding with the Shiite Muslim militant group Hezbollah. But it has shaken up Lebanon's politics, and backers say it represents the future of the long-divided nation.
The coalition may be strong enough to bring the anti-Israel and anti-US Hezbollah to power in parliamentary elections. That possibility has turned the campaign into a fierce battle for Lebanon's Christians.
Sunday's vote pits factions backed by t
he US and the West against a coalition led by the pro-Iranian and pro-Syrian Hezbollah and its ally, Christian leader Michel Aoun. Sunni Muslims overwhelmingly support the former, Shiites the latter.
Christians are divided, making them the swing vote. Pro-westerners are playing on Christians' fears of Shiite domination, warning that Hezbollah could spread Iranian-style Islamic conservatism and draw Lebanon into another war with Israel, as many feel it did in 2006.
"It's your choice between peace and war," Sami Gemayel, a Christian Phalange Party candidate, said recently on TV. "The choice is between Gaza and a developed, civilised Lebanese state," he said. The isolated, war-torn Gaza Strip, is ruled by Hezbollah's ally Hamas.
Christian critics have blasted Aoun as an opportunist, selling out his community for power.
The Christians have historically looked to the West in politics and culture, uninterested in the Palestinians or hostile to them – while Shiite Hezbollah and its supporters take their cues from Iran. Hezbollah is famed for its fight against Israel and support for the Palestinians.
Moreover, Hezbollah is a close ally of Syria. Aoun – a former army commander – fought Syria in 1989 in a failed uprising against its control of Lebanon.
Many thought the Hezbollah-Aoun alliance would quickly fall apart, but three years after its formation, it has a good chance of winning a majority in the 128-seat parliament.
Lebanon's politics have long been solidly sectarian and clannish: chiefs of powerful families in each sect lead the main political parties, and their followers almost invariably vote for them. Aoun and Hezbollah say they are breaking those traditional lines of power. They campaign on promises of reform.
In a speech on Friday, Aoun said the alliance "saved the nation from a lot of bad possibilities" and points the way to greater harmony among Lebanon's sects.
But the alliance may represent a cold-eyed assessment of Lebanon's new sectarian demographics. Christians were once a majority in Lebanon but emigration and higher Muslim birthrates have changed that: Christians, Shiites and Sunnis are believed to make up roughly a third each of the estimated four million population. Shiites are thought to be the largest single sect, and Hezbollah is undoubtedly the most organised and best armed faction in the country.
"The alliance plucked Hezbollah out of political marginalisation," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a Hezbollah expert. "Without it, it would have still be Shiites versus the rest of the country."
