Gaza pull-out 'not enough to secure a lasting peace'

ISRAEL will face an onslaught of suicide bombings and rocket attacks by Palestinian militants after its withdrawal from the Gaza Strip unless it undertakes further pull-outs in the West Bank, the country’s outgoing army chief warned yesterday.

Lieutenant-General Moshe Yaalon’s pessimistic assessment came amid a period of relative calm since the two sides agreed on a ceasefire in February.

But Palestinian analysts share Lt-Gen Yaalon’s assessment that the lull in violence may only be temporary, saying Ariel Sharon, the Israeli prime minister, has done little to boost the standing of Mahmoud Abbas, the moderate Palestinian president.

Israel is due to release 400 more prisoners today in what it says is an effort to strengthen Mr Abbas’s position. But Palestinian Authority officials said the step was insufficient.

Lt-Gen Yaalon, whose words carry weight because he is credited by many Israeli observers for reducing Palestinian violence, said the withdrawal from the Gaza settlements alone would not secure a lasting peace.

"If after the disengagement there will not be an Israeli commitment to a further undertaking, there will be a violent eruption. There will be attacks of all sorts, bombs, suicide bombers, mortars and Kassam rockets," he said. "If we do not give the Palestinians more and more and more there will be an eruption."

However, Lt-Gen Yaalon said allowing a Palestinian state to emerge was a recipe for war.

He said the idea of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, backed by the US government, was "irrelevant".

"The establishment of a Palestinian state will lead at some stage to war," Mr Yaalon said. "Such a war is liable to be dangerous to Israel.

"The idea that it is possible to establish by 2008 a Palestinian state and achieve stability is removed from reality and dangerous. Such a state will undermine the state of Israel."

The general also took issue with Mr Abbas’s strategy of coaxing Hamas into participating in elections without dismantling its armed wing.

"Is this democracy? It is armed gangs pretending to play democracy," he said, answering his own question.

Mr Sharon has said he has no intention to undertake further withdrawals after Israel pulls out of 21 Gaza settlements and four in the West Bank, beginning in mid-August.

However, Ehud Olmert, his deputy premier, is advocating a further unilateral withdrawal in the West Bank as a means of drawing Israel’s borders to include large settlement blocs.

Lt-Gen Yaalon, whose human-rights record was said to be poor by critics, was succeeded yesterday by Dan Halutz, the deputy chief of staff and a former air force commander whose first job will be overseeing the Gaza pull-out against opposition from settlers and far-right elements.

Hani Masri, a leading Palestinian analyst, said yesterday that there was a 50 per cent chance violence will erupt after the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The current period of calm, he said, was not viable.

"Sharon might prefer the current situation but it is not good for the Palestinians and it can only be temporary," Mr Masri said.

Meanwhile, Mr Abbas, underwent a heart procedure in a Jordanian hospital yesterday.

The Palestinian leader was taken to a hospital in Amman, Jordan, complaining of fatigue, and underwent angioplasty, a procedure to clear out clogged coronary arteries, said Tayeb Abdel Rahim, a senior aide to Mr Abbas. Mr Abbas, 69, is expected back in the West Bank today, as planned.