The week ahead: Economic diagnosticians await inflation and jobless figures

Published on Sunday 11 July 2010 15:35

INFLATION and unemployment figures and the annual meetings of British Airways and Marks & Spencer should make up for a relatively quiet results schedule this week.

Experts will take the latest temperature of the fragile UK economy as a flurry of data begins today with the delayed second revision of official growth estimates for the first quarter of 2010.

The Office for National Statistics embarrassingly put back the release two weeks ago after spotting "potential errors". Most economists expect the data to show GDP growth unchanged at 0.3 per cent for the first three months, down from 0.4 per cent in the previous quarter.

Inflation figures for June will be closely studied tomorrow after worries from Bank of England rate-setter Andrew Sentance that prices are rising despite the economic slack created by the recession.

Investec's David Page forecasts a consumer prices index fall from 3.4 per cent to 3.1 per cent - largely because lower petrol prices will more than offset smaller discounts in summer clothes sales.

The market consensus is for a drop to 3.2 per cent.

The latest employment data on Wednesday, meanwhile, is set to take centre stage amid worries over the impact of the government's Budget slashing employment after leaked Treasury data predictedthe loss of 600,000 jobs in the public sector over the next five years.

Unemployment increased to almost 2.5 million between February and April, giving a jobless rate of 7.9 per cent, while the number of people classed as economically inactive rose to 8.19 million, 21.5 per cent of the working age population.

Marks & Spencer will take its turn in the executive pay spotlight when the retail chain holds its annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday.

Following a clash with investors at last year's annual meeting, the high street retailer is on another collision course amid concerns over packages for new head Mark Bolland and outgoing chief Sir Stuart Rose.

More than a fifth of shareholders who voted last year failed to back Rose's re-election to the board because his dual role as executive chairman is against City best practice.

Lemmings are likely to stay away from the British Airways annual meeting after gaining star billing last year in union protests against the firm's leadership and cost-cutting plans.

The animals were hired by Unite but taken away after an RSPCA inspector said they showed signs of "distress" following their unexpected foray into industrial relations.

A year on - after a second successive year of record losses and two strikes which have cost BA about 150 million - the mood is likely to be calmer as union members vote on the airline's latest attempt to end a long-running dispute with cabin crew.

Wall Street banks kick off the sector's interim results reporting season this week and the outcome will be closely watched.

Recent difficult market conditions have raised the prospect of a tougher second quarter for profits, after the industry's remarkable bounce back last year from the financial crisis.

The market for takeovers and initial public offerings all but ground to a halt as markets slumped on fears over the global economic recovery. London's FTSE 100 Index has slumped by more than 12 per cent since April as signs have pointed to a slowdown in economic activity.z