Teresa Hunter: Soap opera of interest rates heads for unhappy ending

Published on Saturday 21 June 2008 15:19

PITY those poor children whose head teacher cancelled their sports day because of worries that they might fall over and hurt themselves. In doing so, the school probably helped pupils swap the odd bruised knee for obesity, heart attacks, diabetes and early deaths.

Where has common sense gone? Banning the egg and spoon, and three-legged and wheelbarrow races gives a whole new meaning to the phrase "killing with kindness".

Killing us, though, is just what interest rates are doing, which is why we desperately need some good news. But could you follow the interest rate story last week? From where I was sitting, the plot seemed to change every day and, like Hollyoaks, became more impenetrable as the week progressed.

After Tuesday's exchange of letters between Chancellor Alistair Darling and the Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King, it seemed, despite concerns at the May rise in inflation, an immediate interest rate rise looked off the cards. Swap rates eased slightly, signalling the worst was over for mortgages.

But all bets were off when the deadly duo stood up at the Mansion House with a stark warning that rates would rise again unless a lid was kept on wage demands. Swap rates leapt again, pricing in at least two further increases in mortgage costs this year. Ouch.

An almighty clash is looming. The unions are gearing up for a summer of strikes, claiming that their members can no longer make ends meet in the face of rising prices.

If they win, we'll all pay the price through higher mortgage and other costs, rising unemployment and tumbling property values, which will continue falling for much longer than any of us can bear to contemplate.

Indeed, many sensible people I know believe if the next movement in interest rates is up rather than down, it won't be a recession we'll be worried about, rather a depression.

That said, it is perfectly understandable that low-paid workers are desperate for a pay rise. Rising food and petrol prices hit them disproportionately hardest. As George Crabbe wrote in the 1700s: "The murmuring poor, who will not fast in peace."

Which leads us neatly to last week's final twist in the tale. According to the Office for National Statistics, no one is fasting at all. Retail sales figures suggest we are stampeding to the shops and spending more extravagantly than for 30 years.

Well, that's very neat for the authorities, isn't it? Interest rates will have to rise after all. The Government can see the unions off.

As for the rest of us, no matter that it will bankrupt thousands of households, more of whom will have to give up little luxuries such as meals. But then, as we keep being told, we all need to tighten our belts, don't we?

Strange, though, that on the same day ONS was boasting about the boom on the high street, Land of Leather said that sales dropped by 35% in May, Halifax predicted that housing transactions would be 45% lower this year, and Marks & Spencer confirmed it has distributed almost one million discount "friends and family" vouchers offering 20% off goods to boost sales.

That doesn't sound like a boom to me. And I know whose data I believe.

Excessive behaviour

MPs on the Treasury Committee have criticised the Financial Services Authority and the insurance industry for not protecting policyholders' interests when companies divide up excess capital, also known as "inherited estate".

This capital has built up over the years to protect promises made to with-profit policyholders.

A distribution of this money is usually triggered by some internal management requirement of the company; but how to firstly value it and then divide it up has long been a thorny issue with consumer groups, since Which? fought a high-profile battle with Axa.

More recently Norwich Union has been embroiled in a wrangle with policyholder advocate Clare Spottiswoode, who was unhappy with its plans for keeping a good chunk of the money pot to itself.

The Prudential is also contemplating sorting out its reported 9bn estate.

However, the MPs have put a spanner in the works by accusing companies of unfairly using this cash to pay their bills, not least to meet mis-selling compensation payments, funding new business and even meeting tax liabilities.

Clever that. It mis-sells you a policy and you pay yourself compensation.

Pensions pariah

ONLY 5% of pension savers would trust Prime Minister Gordon Brown to manage their pensions, and 66% have no faith in the Government when it comes to pensions.

Hard to believe that this poll was taken before the launch of the Government's new personal accounts.