Swine flu to hit UK's pig meat sector hard

Published on Friday 3 July 2009 22:20

CHINA is the most populous nation on the planet with over 1.2 billion inhabitants, but it is also the largest producer of pig meat with output in the current year forecast to come close to 49 million tonnes. This is six million tonnes higher than 2007 and there is every indication that expansion will continue.

However, in most of the developed countries the trend is towards lower output. Production in the EU-27 is predicted to fall by 2 per cent this year to 22.2 million tonnes, while the US expects output to fall by a similar margin to 10.3 million tonnes.

Despite the confirmation of swine flu in late April, there has been no discernible impact on consumption of pig meat. The reason why production is declining in Europe and the US is that profit margins have been slender, largely as a result of higher feed costs. As of March 2009 the US breeding herd, at six million, was down by 3 per cent on the year.

With the exception of China, Russia is one of the few countries where production is rising. Total output in 2007 was rated at 1.9 million tonnes, but this year the prediction is it will hit at least 2.2 million tonnes. However, there are concerns that Russian consumption is not matching the growth in production. This raises the possibility of relatively cheap Russian pig meat being dumped on the European market.

Brazil has seen a considerable growth in its pig industry in recent years, but this now appears to have halted and total output this year will be similar to 2008 figure of three million tonnes.

In the EU virtually every member state is seeing production decline, with the largest fall in the Czech Republic where output is forecast to fall by 20 per cent this year to 265,000 tonnes. Only in Germany, which is the largest producer in the EU, is production forecast to remain relatively stable at 4.6 million tonnes.

Spain is the second largest producer in the EU with 3.4 million tonnes, but that is down by 2 per cent. Poland is seeing a reduction in output with a fall of 10 per cent in 2008 likely to be followed by a further cut of 3 per cent this year.

Denmark, a traditional source of imports for the UK, is also seeing a major shrinkage in its pig industry with the output of two million tonnes in 2007 slipping to 1.85 million tonnes this year.

Pig numbers in the UK have crashed over the past decade, principally because of having to meet higher welfare standards than elsewhere, but high feed costs have also had a major impact. Margins have improved in recent months as cereal prices fell, but production this year is still forecast to fall by 2 per cent to 690,000 tonnes – down by 18,000 tonnes on the 2007 figure.

The continuing exodus from pig production in the UK is best illustrated by the fact that the kill of sows during 2008 at 235,000 head was 12 per cent higher than in the previous year.

In Scotland the pig sector is a mere shadow of what it was in the mid 1990s when there were around 72,000 breeding sows. The December 2008 census puts that figure at just 33,400 sows – down by 11,000 head in just two years. Throughput of clean pigs in Scottish abattoirs has also fallen considerably and last year only 679,000 head were processed compared to more than 745,000 in 2007. There is now a real danger of the Scottish pig industry losing critical mass.