Six months in, and no-one could have predicted current woes

Published on Friday 19 September 2008 21:52

WHEN we launched this competition in January 2008, little did we know, nor could we have predicted, that our IFA competitors would have to face an unprecedented set of circumstances and a series of business failures that would shake the financial world to its core.

Given the current state of financial markets, it's extremely difficult for our IFAs to keep their head, when all about them are losing theirs. But keep their heads they must, because clients rely heavily on the advice and judgment of their IFA, especially at times like these.

Admittedly, we have seen market turbulence in the past, and we have lived to tell the tale, but I couldn't help feeling on Tuesday afternoon when there was so much negativity going around, that this time it was different and something cataclysmic was going to happen. Fortunately, the US Federal Reserve stepped in to help save AIG, Lloyds TSB announced the merger with HBOS and financial markets were able to breathe a very short sigh of relief.

Without wanting to steal the thunder of numerous market-watchers and economists, we now have a very unusual situation whereby the net dividend yield on the FTSE All-Share is higher than the ten-year UK Gilt yield. The last time this happened was in March 2003, which signalled a turning-point in the UK equity market. We can therefore only hope that this week's events indicate that we are nearing the bottom of the market cycle, the credit crunch has almost reached a plateau and that some form of market recovery is about to take place. If this is not the case, we are in for a long hard winter.

I congratulate the five competitors who are featured this month for their resilience and hope that their investment strategies succeed in the longer term.

&#149 Raymond Ellis is director of Scott-Moncrieff Wealth Management Ltd