Scott Reid's Business Blog: Green shoots in the City?

Published on Thursday 2 April 2009 12:50

AS Obama, Broon & Co set about solving the financial crisis gripping the planet, the Footsie has shot back through the 4,000 mark this morning.

The buying frenzy in London amid the demos and window smashing follows a run of better-than-expected US economic data.

America's optimism triggered a 2 per cent overnight rise on Wall Street's Dow Jones.

There were even bigger gains in the Far East, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng almost 7 per cent ahead.

Across the English Channel, European shares have risen sharply in early trading.

It's the sort of stock market optimism that has been sadly absent for the past few weeks.

Which raises the obvious question – can it be sustained or are we looking at just another dead cat bounce?

Who knows where the London market will be come 4.30pm? We've seen solid gains like this wiped out in late trading as the economic realities hit home.

Realities like the fact we are locked in the worst recession since the Second World War with little prospect of a return to growth in 2010.

Yet, hope springs eternal in the trading floors of the Square Mile and there do appear some genuine grounds for optimism.

Take the manufacturing sector, for example. Battered and bruised, yes, but far from moribund.

Yesterday's report from the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply revealed a surprise pick-up in manufacturing activity.

Earlier in the week, it emerged that the number of mortgages approved for house purchase jumped by almost a fifth during February in a further sign that buyers are returning to the market.

A number of big-name housebuilders have been reporting an upturn in reservations, reinforcing the notion that the industry is close to its nadir.

Meanwhile, a report today by the Bank of England predicts the availability of credit to individuals and businesses will improve during the coming three months.

About 15 per cent more banks and building societies say they expect there to be a small increase in lending to households during the second quarter, the first time they have predicted a rise since September 2007.

More than a quarter of lenders also expect an increase in the amount of credit being made available to businesses following an improvement in the cost and availability of funds.

Green shoots by the bucket load, then.

Okay, let's not kid ourselves. Things are going to remain extremely tough for the majority of businesses and consumers for some time to come.

There is no quick fix. But maybe, just maybe, recent economic stimulus packages are starting to have an impact.

Sentiment will be further boosted if our world leaders manage to agree on a fresh package of measures to tackle the global financial crisis.

Given the difference of opinions between France and Germany, who are pushing for stricter regulation of the financial system, and the UK and US, what we're more likely to get is a bland statement full of old commitments.

That may not matter, though, if the market believes it is close to finding its floor.