Position to ponder in Scots shopping malls

Published on Monday 12 April 2010 20:47

"SHOP 'till you drop" is a phrase that seemed to encapsulate the consumer feelgood factor during most of the 'noughties' but could it come back to haunt the retail property market in Scotland?

According to a survey by Cushman & Wakefield, Scotland and Wales saw the most significant increase in shopping centre provision last year.

Unlike Scotland however, Wales has traditionally been underdeveloped in this area, and there is now more than 342 square metres of shopping centre provision per 1,000 inhabitants north of the Border – the highest anywhere in the UK.

London, by contrast, has just 220 to 250 sq m per 1,000 inhabitants while in both Wales and the East Midlands it is under 190 sq m.

The additional Scottish space – just under 77,000 sq m in total – was accounted for by the completion of Union Square in Aberdeen and an extension to St Enoch in Glasgow.

So should this be seen as an economic vote of confidence in Scotland or does it reignite concerns about retail oversupply?

Richard Dodd, a spokesman for the Scottish Retail Consortium, seemed quite sanguine about the statistics.

He said: "I don't think you can read too much into these figures as there is not a single, simplified explanation. Certainly, there has been a substantial expansion in new retail space in recent years but then Scotland is a recognised shopping destination, particularly Glasgow which promotes itself very successfully in this respect.

"Completion of a larger than usual number of centres across the UK coincided with the onset of recession but that does not mean these investments are a mistake; they have been planned with a long term view."

As for heading the shopping centre square metre league, Mr Dodd said he doubted whether Scotland had more overall retail space, pro rata, than England, Wales or Northern Ireland.

But trips around Scotland's urban areas do not see any shortage of 'traditional' High Street units (a lot of them empty) in addition to the shopping centre space, much of it created since 2001 – Union Square, Silverburn , Glasgow Fort and Ocean Terminal, plus extensions to Braehead, St Enoch and East Kilbride; not forgetting Fort Kinnaird, which began life in bulky goods but, like Topsy, just grew and grew to become the largest 'shopping park' in the UK.

Retail expansion has been matched by some baffling inconsistencies by local authorities. In October it was reported that Glasgow City Council had decided to put a moratorium on large schemes outside the city centre yet within weeks approved a 25,800 sq m of retail and leisure at Glasgow Harbour.

In December, Edinburgh city councillors passed a proposal to extend Hermiston Gait retail park by a third, on the basis that this scheme was underperforming compared to similar centres. When launched 15 years ago it was common currency among agents that Hermiston Gait would struggle from a mediocre location, compounded by confusing access. So why does a council with a policy of promoting a commercially vibrant city centre want to give a planning leg up to additional retail development on the periphery?

Retailers and developers with interests in Glasgow and Edinburgh city centres asked that question – and lodged objections to the two schemes. But should we infer that additional shopping centre space is OK as long as contained within a central area?

There are plans to double the space at Buchanan Galleries and Glasgow City Council is said to want to hurry things along by providing TIF funding to the owner, Henderson Global Investors.

Yet one major property consultancy has already warned that Glasgow's 'Z'-shaped prime pitch (Sauchiehall, Buchanan and Argyle streets) could retrench into an 'I' – in other words confined to Buchanan Street, anchored at either end by the Galleries and St Enoch. Even today, parts of Sauchiehall Street look downright tacky

The massive shopping centre space created in the 30 years to 2010 has been good for consumers and for the economy. But perhaps a fiscally tight environment is an ideal time to focus on our traditional High Street stock so that we maintain a balanced 'mix' and reduce the risk of our cities and big towns ending up as North American clones.