No cut in interest rates likely this week, say experts

Published on Saturday 30 August 2008 15:09

ECONOMISTS are warning not to expect a cut in interest rates before November despite Monetary Policy Committee member David Blanchflower raising hopes that he will push for a 0.5% reduction on Thursday.

Economists say Blanchflower, who hinted in an interview last week that he will try to persuade his MPC colleagues to lower rates by half a percentage point, is unlikely to succeed in his campaign while inflation continues to soar.

Inflation is now tipped to exceed 5% in the autumn after the Consumer Prices Index recorded 4.4% last month, more than double the Bank of England's 2% target. This, say leading economists, makes the possibility of a rate cut before November almost impossible.

Hetal Mehta, senior economic adviser to the Ernst & Young Item Club of economists, said Blanchflower is unlikely to persuade his MPC colleagues of the merits of a substantial rate cut while inflation is yet to reach its peak in the current cycle. But she raised the possibility of a cut in November.

She said: "David Blanchflower has been the only one pressing for cuts for quite a while. With inflation expected still to go up, it's unlikely he'll be able to persuade his colleagues on the MPC to go with him.

"We are expecting inflation to peak around about October at the earliest, so we'll maybe see something in November. We are looking at inflation certainly over 5%; 5.2% or 5.3% come October is a real possibility."

Richard Dingwall-Smith, chief economist at SWIP, said a November cut is possible, although he thinks the Bank should opt for several sharp cuts from February next year.

"Anything before November is very unlikely," he said.

Blanchflower argued last week that in order to avoid a deep recession, "we (the MPC] need to act and we probably need to act in larger amounts".

David Kern, economic adviser to the British Chambers of Commerce, which has issued several vociferous warnings of recession, agreed the MPC should not hesitate much longer.

He said: "We understand the MPC's concern over inflation. But the MPC's own analysis suggests that inflation will peak in the next two to three months, and will fall sharply next year. A major recession can still be avoided, but the MPC cannot wait too long before acting. The MPC must start cutting interest rates in October or November."