Mergers and elections? What lies in store for the year ahead?

Published on Saturday 27 December 2008 12:56

OUR PREDICTIONS FOR 2009

1 Sun Microsystems, the computing giant which has just announced redundancies at its plant in Linlithgow, is acquired, probably by IBM.

2 The FTSE-100 falls below 4000 before recovering to end the year not far ahead of where it is now: 4500.

3 There is a shake-up in media rules, paving the way for mergers among regional groups. At least one UK national newspaper comes close to closure or merger with another.

4 A big hedge fund in the City collapses.

5 There is a UK general election in the autumn and Labour clings on to form a minority government.

6 The government in Westminster embarks on a privatisation spree, selling stakes in Channel Four and Royal Mail, and considers bringing in more private funding to other state-run interests such as the Forestry Commission.

7 The Scottish Enterprise budget is cut and the ITI Scotland initiative is scaled back in a new round of value-for-money savings ordered by the Scottish Government.

8 More Middle East or Far East funds invest in the US and European car industry.

9 Another iconic high street name collapses.

10 The X-Factor winner does not top the Christmas singles charts.

... AND WHAT HAPPENED TO OUR TIPS FOR 2008?

1 An easing of the credit squeeze, lower interest rates, low valuations and stronger than expected corporate earnings will underpin equities, with emerging markets and Asia Pacific seeing the greater benefit. The FTSE 100 to enjoy a second-half pick-up and close the year at 6,900.

MAINLY WRONG: We were right on lower interest rates and valuations, some decent figures earlier in the year and the emerging markets coming out strongest. But the credit squeeze worsened, equities plunged and the FTSE 100 is destined to end the year nearer to 4,200.

2 Stagflation will become the new buzzword as the US in particular grapples with a combination of recession and inflation.

MAINLY CORRECT: Certainly in the first part of the year, stagflation was all the rage as the economy weakened and prices of commodities kept inflation high. But as the year progressed and inflation was brought under control, attention switched to deflation.

3 China will make moves to acquire more energy-related assets, notably in Africa, but will revalue its currency under persistent pressure from the US.

MAINLY CORRECT: Some reports described a race between China and the United States to secure the continent's oil supplies. Incoming US President Barack Obama has accused China of keeping its currency artificially low, but so far the Chinese have resisted pressure to revalue.

4 Hanover, the private equity investor in SMG, will bail out and force a sale of the company that owns Scottish Television.

WRONG: Hanover is hanging on, but SMG did change its name to STV, consolidated its shares and sold Virgin Radio.

5 Wood Mackenzie, the oil industry consultancy, and Zoom Airlines will revive plans to float on the London Stock Exchange.

WRONG: Wood Mac is keeping a listing under review, while Zoom went bust.

6 Spanish energy giant Iberdrola will consider offloading some of its ScottishPower assets to intensify the group's focus on renewables.

WRONG: While Iberdrola committed huge sums to renewables, it has seen no need to sell any of ScottishPower's operations.

7 Stuart Rose will name former Waitrose boss Steve Esom as his successor as chief executive of Marks & Spencer.

WRONG: Rose was elevated to executive chairman, but Esom fell out of favour and left the company.

8 A flurry of bid activity will break out in the flourishing oil services sector.

CORRECT: The market has been buoyant, leading to consolidation as bigger businesses have bought niche companies. Close Brothers bought Energy Cranes for 142m, Candover led a buyout of Expro International Group for 1.9bn, and Phoenix Private Equity acquired Ashtead Technology for 100m. More deals will follow.

9 The Competition Commission will order BAA to sell one of its London airports and one in Scotland. The sale will be opposed by the business community and BAA will seek a compromise by capping charges.

CORRECT: The commission has demanded a sale, though going a little further. It wants Gatwick, Stansted and probably Edinburgh put on the block. BAA may yet offer some sort of compromise, but a sale of assets now looks inevitable.

10 There will be a big merger in the high street.

ALMOST CORRECT: Sir Philip Green, below, came close to buying Moss Bros and merging his Bhs and Arcadia chains with troubled Icelandic group Baugur, which owns House of Fraser, Whistles and Mosaic. Woolworths was touted as a target for Tesco and Iceland, among others. Private equity firm Silverfleet Capital, the owner of TJ Hughes stores, says there will be lots of mergers next year.