End soon to double-dip recession, experts say

By DAVID MADDOX
Published on 25/10/2012 02:12

The longest double-dip recession since the 1950s is expected to be declared over by official figures today.

Gross domestic product (GDP) – a broad measure for the total economy – is predicted by City experts to have grown 0.6 per cent between July and September, ending three consecutive quarters of declining output.

But the bounce-back in the third quarter will be largely driven by one-off factors, such as clawed-back activity lost to the extra bank holiday for the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee and a slight lift from the Olympics.

However, some economists warn the UK is far from out of the economic woods and can expect growth to slow.

Economic indicators, such as purchasing manager surveys, suggest the manufacturing and construction sectors remained weak, although the powerhouse services sector should deliver a robust performance.

Prime Minister David Cameron told MPs yesterday the “good news will keep coming” after reeling off a series of statistics about unemployment and inflation both being down.

However, the response to Labour leader Ed Miliband led to accusations that Mr Cameron had breached rules on sensitive official statistics.

Labour said the comment was a “clear reference” to today’s keenly-awaited gross domestic product figures. But Mr Cameron’s official spokesman denied the Prime Minister was talking about the GDP figures.

A spokesman for the UK Statistics Authority last night said: “Any suggestions that the rules on pre-release of financial information may not have been followed, we will look into.”