Vote splitter could yet swing key states

DEMOCRATS have never forgiven Ralph Nader for costing them the 2000 presidential election, blaming the veteran third-party candidate for taking enough votes away from Al Gore to cost him Florida and the presidency. But this year, the Democrats may have cause to thank Nader for standing again.

According to recent polls, it is Republican presidential candidate John McCain who has most to fear from Nader. In a year in which the economy is foremost in everyone's mind, Nader's populist rhetoric seems to be striking a chord with voters.

And, if the polls are to be believed, a majority of those voters would, in the absence of the third party candidate on the ballot, be likely to vote for McCain.

According to recent CNN/Opinion Research polls, Barack Obama leads McCain by four points in a two-way choice among likely voters in the battleground state of Florida. When Nader and other minority-party candidates like Libertarian Bob Barr are added to the mix, the gap grows to eight points.

Nader has the highest profile of the many third party candidates standing in this election. There are scores of them, ranging from the Green party to prohibitionists to biblical fundamentalists.

Nader is contesting 45 states in 2008, compared to 34 in 2004, making his potential to split the vote in important swing states greater than ever before. His campaign is candid about the potential for upsetting the Republican Party's election prospects. Nader campaign spokesperson Marc Abizeid said: "A lot of conservative voters are coming over to our side. This is a trend we have seen consistently throughout this campaign. We are baffled by it but we welcome them."

Though the numbers are relatively small, with the most generous polls giving Nader an estimated 4%-5% of the vote nationally, and 6%-8% in some states, it could be enough to split the vote in all-important swing states, tipping the election to Obama.

In 2004, Nader took just 400,000 votes. This year, his campaign team are predicting a much higher share of the national vote.

Who are the voters Nader is stealing from McCain? "He has this populist economic message which appeals to white working class voters, people who you'd expect the Republicans would have a good shot at getting," said Kevin Hill, an associate professor of political science at Florida International University. "I don't know how many votes that is but in close states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Colorado he really could make a difference."

What makes Nader's appeal to Republicans surprising is that the third party candidate has what is usually regarded as a left-of-centre agenda, which focuses on media ownership, the environment, finding alternative energy sources and workers' rights.

Nader is seen as a politician who is opposed to the political system (he has described the Republicans and Democrats as one party with two faces), and with America facing an economic downturn, and with widespread anger at the perceived excesses of Wall Street executives, Nader's hard line on corporate crime and scepticism about Free Trade is playing well.

There is also the possibility that race plays into the debate too. For disillusioned Republicans, moving to Obama may be a step too far, and Nader may simply be a more palatable alternative.

In 2004, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry spent a lot of time and money trying to dissuade Nader from running and party lawyers contested his place on the ballot in 18 states. Kerry even met Nader to stress his concerns about the effect Nader could have on his election chances. By contrast, the Obama campaign has made no efforts to block him.

Nader has been freed to concentrate on expanding his campaign into a greater number of states than ever before, while simultaneously breaking his fundraising records.

"This year, we are mobilising much more support, we have more money in donations and higher numbers in the polls than in previous years," said Abizeid. "We are feeling confident about our prospects, particularly in swing states like Nevada, New Mexico and Pennsylvania."

The McCain campaign played down the threat posed by Nader, saying the figures are so small as to be insignificant. But with McCain chasing every vote and the polls pointing towards an Obama win, it may be Republicans who have cause to curse Nader this year.