LAST week's convention in Denver could not have gone better for the Democrats. Unity was absolute. The Clintons were not only gracious but
generous. Most important of all, Barack Obama performed to expectations and beyond in front of 75,000 people amidst scenes of extraordinary emotion.
This was revivalist politics at their best with a very clever, relatively young man setting out his stall in language that everyone could understand. After a week in Denver, I am more convinced than ever that Barack Obama is the most exciting phenome
non to hit American politics since John F Kennedy. However, I am not yet confident that he will win.
Since Obama delivered his fine speech, there has been a decent bounce in the polls. Whereas the gap between him and John McCain had disappeared over the previous weeks, Obama is now edging ahead as the Republicans go into their own rally of the faithful in Minneapolis-St Paul – "twin cities" which Democrats equated with the identities of McCain and George W Bush.
But the nagging question, both before and after Denver, is why Obama is not streaking much further ahead in the polls. One is again obliged to look back to the era of John F Kennedy and the fact that – in spite of all the adulation – he scraped home by the narrowest of margins against Richard Nixon. In other words, never underestimate the resilience of the American right just because it is remaining quiet.
An incredible amount has changed in American society since those far-off days; otherwise Barack Obama would be serving the drinks at a party convention rather than emerging as the Democratic candidate. But some of the fundamentals remain the same, and essentially the conflict over the next two months will be between a vision for the future and fear of the unknown; between hope and cynicism.
The trick that Obama must pull – and has not yet come close to achieving – is to make this election a referendum on the Bush years rather than on his own fitness to become president and, at least as important, Commander-in-Chief of America's military might. Certainly up to Thursday evening and that speech in the Invesco Stadium, the debate was oriented more towards Obama's qualifications than McCain's disqualifications – notably being a loyal adherent to the Bush administration.
Somehow, Obama must get off that back foot and attack relentlessly the Republican record – on the economy, on energy, on wars. These are the big issues and while Obama has developed compelling arguments on each, he does not yet have the votes.
Apart from lack of international experience, his biggest political vulnerability is on the "tax and spend" charge, since every commitment to education, healthcare and so on is being carefully costed by the Republicans. Obama needs to change the terms of that debate.
But the theme will be repeated ad infinitum. Doubts will be sown about Obama's experience, his identity and about taxing the middle classes to pay for his promises. Beneath the surface of all that will be the question of race which, make no mistake, is the single biggest obstacle to Barack Obama entering the White House.
The colour of Obama's skin was little mentioned in Denver in the early part of last week, but as soon as he received the nomination that changed for good reasons. History demanded to be recognised. It is a fantastic landmark in the American journey and we should acknowledge with humility that it has not happened in any European country – a black politician leading his party into a national election.
It was an extraordinary week of anniversaries. Forty-five years ago in Washington, Martin Luther King made his never-to-be-forgotten speech: "I have a dream…" Sixty years ago, Hubert Humphrey set the Democratic Party on a non-racial course at the Convention in Philadelphia. A century ago, the president who signed the Civil Rights Act and maybe his own political death warrant, Lyndon B Johnson, was born. Truly amazing historical symmetry.
In Denver it was celebrated unconditionally as the words of Barack Obama filled the night air, but it would be a mistake to assume that the reaction was so universally shared in the darker corners of a complex society. This election will go all the way to the wire.
The full article contains 727 words and appears in Scotland On Sunday newspaper.
