NEXT year is shaping up to be a big one in Afghanistan, and sadly violence is what will make it significant.
An MoD leak to one of the Sunday papers last weekend indicated that the British military presence in the country is set to be increased by around 4,000 soldiers, which would take our commitment to more than 12,000.
Whatever the outcome of the US e
lections, as the violence in Iraq continues to wind down, the American government is set to start making Afghanistan the focus of its military efforts.
It was reported yesterday that Barack Obama has already indicated as much to General David Petraeus, who takes over US Central Command in September. There is no reason to suppose John McCain plans to act any differently.
British ground forces were first committed to the country in 2002 – six years ago. To put that in perspective, one cannot help thinking of a paratrooper killed in Helmand recently. He was 12 when we first went there.
However you spin it, little has been made in way of progress – in the past week it has become apparent that the routes east, west and south out of Kabul are now seriously threatened by the Taleban. This is not to denigrate the performance of our military, the fact is our attention was long on Iraq and the political cynicism that conflict bred has spilled over into our effort in Afghanistan.
Despite repeated calls for greater military involvement in the conflict by other Nato countries, little has been forthcoming. So the Americans, along with the British, are going to crank things up next year.
It's not hard to see their rationale: the "surge" worked in Iraq – although other factors contributed to its success – and the Americans are of the view that a substantial increase in forces in Afghanistan can defeat the Taleban.
What this means in real terms, however, is killing people. There's no other way to put it.
A colleague recently returned from southern Afghanistan was surprised at the amount of intelligence available to British commanders about the names, movements and associates of known Taleban commanders.
What is lacking at the moment is the manpower to go after them. That will change in 2009, and after so many years, the future of the country will really be in play.
The full article contains 390 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
