BACK in 2002, as the current batch of second-year trainees now nearing qualification arrived at university, not one of them could have foreseen the dramatic economic slump that would, seven years later, lead to many of them being cast aside by the legal profession.
After five years of study followed by two years of traineeship grunt, a significant group are now facing the real prospect of having to pursue a career outside of the law – at least until the market shows signs of improvement.
In the past few yea
rs, widespread low retention rates for newly qualified solicitors (NQs) have been unheard of in Scottish law, with trainees, some taken on by firms before graduation, facing a benign job market, even if let go after the discharge of their training contract.
This race for talent imprinted an optimism on young lawyers, but following a dramatic bout of redundancies, and a flurry of cancelled traineeship contracts within Scottish firms, a third bout of bad employment news is likely to sap any optimism that remains.
Through no fault of their own, dozens are being told that the firm has no space for them on a permanent basis, sending them out into a job market already stuffed with candidates.
"From a recruiters point of view, it is fairly disappointing times," admits David Thomson, Hudson's principal consultant for legal recruitment in Scotland.
"Newly qualified lawyers finish their contracts in September, and in a more buoyant market, over the last two or three years, we found they were getting offered jobs earlier and earlier. It wasn't uncommon for us to be recruiting for these guys in January.
"This year, there are still a lot of people at the moment who don't know if they have a job and a fair number who have been told, 'there's no room at the inn'. It's pretty difficult.
"The majority of firms would love to keep them, but it's economic."
The picture painted by Alan Clark, a former lawyer, now in charge of legal recruitment at Aberdeen-based Thorpe Molloy, is no rosier. "The market is pretty saturated at the moment with newly qualifieds," he says. "A lot of them are in the situation where they are on a two-year contract and, when that comes to an end, if the firm are looking to cost cut, trainees, reaching the end of their traineeships are susceptible to being culled. There is a real problem."
And he foresees only problems ahead for the current batch of trainees, as the production line of talent churns out more lawyers every year. "This is something that is going to be compounded because there are trainees coming in behind them," he says.
This fact is not lost on one young lawyer who was recently told she was among 75 per cent of second-year trainees not required by their firm. "Traineeships worked before on a supply and demand basis," she says. "As there has been more need for trainees, more people have gone into the law. To suddenly cut it back in one year, it's going to leave a lot of people this year out of work. Next year, it won't be back up to previous retention rates, so it will be all of this year's trainees applying for jobs and all of next year's. It's going to gradually increase the number of qualified lawyers with no jobs."
The universal refrain from concerned parties to this desperate situation is that these solicitors are being offered "support".
Recruitment agencies are telling NQs that they need to exhibit flexibility in their quest for a permanent role. Where once young lawyers could almost rely on a position within their chosen specialism in a firm in their chosen locale, today's market dictates that those willing to compromise may be among the lucky.
David Thomson says: "We're trying to give them as many options as we possibly can. There will be vacancies in the UK, but we are advising people that are looking that they need to be as flexible as possible.
"Where you have a newly qualified who says, 'I'd like to do corporate in a mid-tier firm in Glasgow', the advice we are giving is that you need to say, 'I'll do corporate, but I'll do it anywhere in the UK'."
Alan Clark says this shift is already under way. "We are seeing a lot from the firms in the Central Belt coming up to Aberdeen to explore a broader geographical area because, out of necessity, they have to try and secure a job somewhere," he says.
"They have to be open-minded if they want to get a job. There has to be a realisation that, if you get a job of any kind, even maintaining your trainee salary, you are not doing too badly at the moment."
Frasia Wright, a legal recruitment agent since 1988, says increasing flexibility might extend to young lawyers deserting the profession. "This period will be to the benefit of other business sectors," she maintains.
"Lawyers will move into other parts of the business community – whether that be finance, manufacturing, technology or life sciences. The loyalty that firms got from lawyers coming through, trainees working very hard to prove themselves, will shift now."
Aside from advising NQs to consider flitting, recruitment agencies and the Law Society have begun laying out practical steps to help unemployed lawyers remain competitive for the few jobs that remain.
A forthcoming conference offering employment support organised by the society in partnership with Hudson was subject to unprecedented demand. "We sent the invites out on Monday afternoon and by Monday evening we were at full capacity – which we have never experienced," Mr Thomson says.
But what of the firms themselves? Unsurprisingly, some are reluctant to discuss the matter. Thought to have the lowest retention rate, Maclay Murray & Spens will not comment on its retention policy at all. HBJ Gateley Wareing is equally tight-lipped, as are Anderson Strathern, Thorntons, Aberdein Considine and Paull & Williamsons.
Some, such as Biggart Baillie, Pinsent Masons, DLA Piper and bto say decisions on trainee retention have yet to be made.
Dundas & Wilson is also among that group, and managing partner Donald Shaw admits redundancies following recent restructuring and deferment of traineeships reflect the problems faced by the firm in the economic downturn. "However, at this stage, we are not able to confirm final NQ numbers," he says.
Turcan Connell insists it will be retaining several second-year trainees, and Tods Murray expresses hope that it can retain more than 50 per cent of those qualifying this year.
Others are more blunt. MacRoberts reports it is to keep only five of 15 trainees, and Shepherd + Wedderburn says it will keep eight, but will not confirm how many trainees it actually has.
McGrigors says it has 29 NQ job applicants for 14 available roles – 18 of which are for 11 available positions in Scotland.
The firm's managing partner, Richard Masters, says: "We have thought very hard about how many NQs we are able to take on this year.
"The economic downturn meant the number of vacancies had to be reduced.
"Traditionally, we have done well at retaining trainees, so we're disappointed not to be able to offer roles to all of the NQs we would like to keep in the business."
Some firms are more positive. Ledingham Chalmers insists its retention rate of 60 per cent is normal, as does Balfour Manson, which intends to keep one of four trainees.
But it is Harper Macleod that seems to offer the most hope for youngsters.
Confirming that the firm is to keep all of its second-year trainees, chief executive Martin Darroch says: "We are proud of what we are doing – retaining 100 per cent of our trainees.
"We have seven starting on 31 August and those are the ones we selected a year ago or two years ago. We have not carried out any deferrals whatsoever."
He continues: "There are positions we are recruiting for. One or two of those, potentially could be filled by newly qualifieds."
