Kate Forbes confirms she is considering running for SNP leadership after Humza Yousaf resignation

The former finance secretary said she has ‘a groundswell of support’ in the party

Kate Forbes is the most popular candidate to succeed Humza Yousaf among the Scottish public, a new poll has found, as the former finance secretary confirmed she is considering running for the SNP leadership.

The move would fire the starting gun on another bruising party leadership contest for Forbes, this time against former deputy first minister John Swinney, who the survey found is better liked among SNP supporters.

Ms Forbes said she had “a lot of support” both within the party and in the country at large, as she suggested she was in with a shot of securing the backing of SNP members if she does decide to run.

Kate Forbes at the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh. Picture: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire

However, she said she needed to “weigh up” what was in the best interests of the SNP, the wider country and her family.

Mr Swinney has emerged as the early frontrunner to take over from Mr Yousaf as First Minister, with a host of senior figures, including education secretary Jenny Gilruth, SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn and net zero secretary Mairi McAllan, publicly backing him, despite him yet to announce he is standing.

When asked who the best candidate for Scotland’s next first minister would be, research by Ipsos found 26 per cent backed Ms Forbes, with 20 per cent supporting Mr Swinney.

However among SNP voters, 30 per cent preferred Mr Swinney – who served as Nicola Sturgeon’s deputy first minister for more than eight years – while 21 per cent opted for Ms Forbes.

Kate Forbes

Mr Yousaf announced his intention to resign on Monday after his decision to rip up the power-sharing agreement between the SNP and the Greens dramatically backfired.

Ms Forbes, whose supporters stress the need for change, was narrowly defeated by Mr Yousaf during last year’s occasionally bitter leadership contest. That contest was prompted by the resignation of Ms Sturgeon and saw damaging exchanges between the candidates during live TV debates.

Mr Swinney warned the SNP now faced a “more difficult situation” than when Ms Sturgeon resigned, prompting him to consider a leadership bid. The 60-year-old party veteran told journalists he had “a lot to think about” as he considered whether or not to run for the job.

He said: “I have a lot of personal circumstances to think about to make sure that it would be the right decision for my family to do this. So I'm giving that all a great deal of thought to make sure I come to the right decision for my family, my party and my country.”

Pressed over whether he was seen as ‘yesterday’s man’ and if the SNP needed a new face at the helm, Mr Swinney said: “Well, I think we're perhaps getting a little bit ahead of ourselves and I also think that people have always got a contribution to make.”

After Ms Sturgeon resigned a little over a year ago, Mr Swinney, who was her deputy, suggested new blood was needed in the SNP leadership.

Asked about those comments, Mr Swinney said: “Events change, don't they? Nothing ever remains the same. What's changed is that my party finds itself in a very different and more difficult situation than it found itself in 12 months ago and I would not be doing a service to the many, many, many people who have contacted me asking me to stand.

“It wouldn't be my style to ignore the representations that have been made to me. I'm someone who listens, who listens and addresses the points that are put to me and that’s exactly what I’m doing just now.”

Mr Swinney previously led the SNP between 2000 and 2004, but was succeeded by Alex Salmond following a series of poor election results.

Ms Forbes said it was still “early days”, adding: “We’ll obviously be considering things over the next few hours and so on – nobody’s declared yet, so I think we do still have a bit of time.”

Asked if she was tempted to run, the 34-year-old said: “I think for me it’s clear I have a groundswell of support amongst the party. That was clear from the last contest and clearly we need to weigh up what is in the best interests of the party, the country and my family.

“It’s what I’ve said quite consistently over the last year, that if I were to run, those would be the conditions.”

In an interview with Sky News, Ms Forbes said: “Clearly, we need, right now, a leader who can unite the party, who can take the party forward into an election. So while I’m weighing up all options and haven’t discounted any, I also need to know that this is the right decision for the party, for the country, apart from for myself.”

She said Mr Swinney had been “an extremely competent Cabinet member for many years and he obviously is much loved and well-respected across the party”.

“That’s why I think it’s really key, now, to weight up and evaluate what is right for the party, what's right for the country, what’s right for me,” she said. “And I’m sure John Swinney will be doing the same. Each of us has choices to make and those choices must be in the best interests of the party.”

Ms Forbes continued: “I am not ruling myself out. I’m still considering all of the options. But I also know that there is a lot of support for me across the country and across the party, and last year proved that.

"What’s key now, is to think about what the next few months hold and to ensure that the party is able to move forward, to fight that election and to ensure we have the trust of the people.”

Veteran MSP Fergus Ewing has hit out at suggestions Mr Swinney is the obvious candidate to replace Mr Yousaf as he has a good relationship with the Greens, which could be crucial in passing legislation and budgets in a minority government.

Speaking to the Press and Journal, Mr Ewing said the suggestion was “nonsense”, adding “Kate Forbes can reach out and work with other main parties – and can do so with more success than John Swinney”.

He said: “But it is also proof that the ‘Green tail’ is still wagging the big yellow dog. Humza sacked the Greens last week. The ‘tail’ was docked. But now it has re-emerged like a kind of phantom limb.”

SNP MSP Ivan McKee, who initially ran Ms Forbes’s campaign last year before distancing himself from her, has also backed her to become the next first minister.

Speaking to LBC, he said: “I think it’s important that we move on and we get the right person in place to take us forward now. I think the party, this time, needs to take its time to consider what the options are very seriously and look outside the bubble.” Mr McKee added: “I continue to believe that Kate Forbes is the person that can reach out to that wider electorate.”

Ms Forbes voted in favour of Gillian Mackay’s proposed legislation to create buffer zones outside abortion clinics as it passed its first stage of Holyrood scrutiny on Tuesday. She had previously suggested private prayers may need protected and that the legislation must balance that right with the right of people to access medical appointments.

During last year’s leadership contest, Ms Forbes received criticism over her social views, particularly around equal marriage, that led to several politicians dropping their support for her.

But Mr McKee said she shrugged off the questions by showing her “resilience and capability”. He said those were her “personal views”, stressing her stance “doesn’t impact her operation as a politician”.

Researchers from Ipsos questioned 1,127 adults across Scotland over Monday and Tuesday.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said the results showed Mr Swinney “would be a more popular choice among SNP voters to replace him as First Minister than Kate Forbes would be”.

But she added: “However, Forbes has a seven point lead over Swinney when it comes to who the wider public think would make the best first minister.”

Ms Gray said: “The SNP will be looking to select a leader who can unite the party, secure co-operation from opposition parties so that laws and budgets can be passed and reverse the party’s slide in the polls.

“While Swinney may be better placed than Forbes to address the first two of those, on the third point the evidence suggests that Forbes may currently have wider appeal among the electorate than Swinney does.”

The polling found 37 per cent of voters believe Mr Swinney would do a good job as first minster, while 23 per cent believed he would do badly in the role.

Similarly 37 per cent of people also thought Ms Forbes would be a good first minster, with 24 per cent saying she would do a bad job.

However among those who voted for the SNP in 2021, 58 per cent said that Mr Swinney would do a good job as first minister, with 10 per cent saying he would do badly.

And while 46 per cent of SNP voters said Ms Forbes would make a good first minster, 22 per cent said they believed she would do a bad job.

Voters were evenly split on whether Mr Yousaf’s decision to end the Bute House Agreement between the SNP and the Greens was the right thing to do – with 45 per cent agreeing it was, while 45 per cent thought it was the wrong decision.

However 60 per cent of those who voted for the SNP in the last Holyrood election said they felt ending the deal was the wrong decision.

2021 SNP voters are more likely to say Yousaf’s choice to end the Bute House Agreement was the wrong decision (60 per cent).

More than eight out of 10 of those questioned (81 per cent) agreed meanwhile that Mr Yousaf was right to resign, while half the public (51 per cent) said he had “made no difference to Scotland”.

Less than one in 10 (8 per cent) said he had changed Scotland for the better, with 37% stating he had changed the country for the worse.